The best thing about 6UP is that it offers a real opportunity for you to use your cricket knowledge to maximise your chances for success.

6UP involves making predictions about live cricket overs, meaning players can take into consideration the situation of the match, playing conditions and past performances prior to making a play.

Players have an insight into everything that’s happening in the match at the moment they want to play. It is the only game of its kind in the world designed to enable players to participate in the game in true, real time.

There are three main areas of skill that players can apply to 6UP. Each has a major impact on the likelihood of success. They are:

While designing the 6UP game, we analyzed more than 20,000 overs bowled in ODI and T/20 cricket matches played between 2006 and 2008. The majority of results for each ball are between zero and six which provides approx 120,000 possible ball-by-ball outcomes for a 6 ball over.

The findings of these results are available at www.play6up.in and also at the 6UP wiki, where you’ll find other players offering additional contributions and insights into how they applied their skills and knowledge when making their predictions.

From there, the basic skills that reduce this range of probability even further include:

• Knowledge of the 6UP game rules
• An understanding of how ODI & T/20 cricket matches are played

If a player brings just these basic skills to their 6UP predictions, they dramatically improve their opportunity for making a successful play.

The ability for a player to factor live game conditions into their 6UP play will further improve their likelihood of success.

Among the factors to be considered are:

• The current run-rate
• The RPO for the previous two or three overs
• The ball-by-ball outcomes for the previous two or three overs
• The required run-rate (if the team batting second is at the crease)
• The RPO conceded by the bowler in his previous overs

As you can play 6UP right up until the bowler releases the first ball of the over, you can take into account all or any of these prevailing LIVE match conditions prior to making a play.

Let’s start with the RPO — an excellent guide of the game’s overall dynamics and the way the upcoming over might evolve.

For instance, consider the following hypothetical match situation in an ODI between India and Australia:

India, batting first, is cruising along at a high run-rate, with two exceptional strikers of the ball at the wicket. Yuvraj is doing most of the scoring and is on strike again. To this point, the Aussie bowlers have not been troubling the batsmen, with five boundaries having been scored in the previous three overs. Even with Lee, one of the game’s best bowlers, about to begin the next over, it seems the only thing that could interrupt the 10-an-over pace is over confidence. It is too early in the innings to expect the Indians to try to go even faster?

In this case, a 6UP combination for the 8th over may look like this:

6UP Pick: 044020 — a total of 10 Runs, with two boundaries

If, on the other hand, the match conditions looked like this:

It is clear the pitch is ‘doing something’ and the bowlers have the upper hand. The batsmen’s motivation must be survival, so it is very doubtful they will be looking to push the score. More likely, they will simply try to stick around, let the conditions settle and see the opening bowlers off.

A 6UP player might opt for a maiden, or a combination of scoreless deliveries and singles.

Based on previous matches, the likelihood for success in this example can be reduced to as low as 1/20. Maidens (000000) and one-run combinations (such as 000100) occur 20 per cent of the time in ODI cricket when batters are struggling to master the bowlers, or where a wicket has just fallen.

An ability to read the LIVE game and using this insight to identify likely 6UP combinations is most important if you are going to distinguish yourself from the pack and give yourself the best chance of success.

The personal skill involved in reading live game conditions and recognizing what might happen next dramatically increases your chances of beating other players by making an accurate 6UP play ...

At the start of an innings

When you play 6UP early in an innings, the form of each team coming into the game and specifically the previous run-rates of opening batsmen and strike rates of and runs conceded by the opening bowlers in the early overs should be considered.

Further, knowledge of the weather and ground conditions — will they favour batters or bowlers or have little impact? — and the history of games at the venue could be useful.

Our analysis of ODIs between 1996 and 2008 confirmed what many experts have known for many years — that the overs in the middle of a typical ODI are a time for consolidation. Unless the required run-rate is already huge and irrespective of how many wickets are down, batsmen work the ball and keep the scoreboard ticking over at this stage of the match.

A skilled 6UP player with knowledge of this will know that there is a strong likelihood that the overs in this period of a match will feature a lot of ones and twos. In some low-scoring matches, the likelihood that overs in this period of the innings would have two to three singles in them (such as 110202 or 020111) were as high as 50 per cent.

Of course, at that stage of the game the fielding captain probably has five men on the boundary, so there are singles on offer. At the start of an innings, in contrast, the captain is required to have most of his men within the fielding circle, so singles can be harder to find. During the early stages of the matches we studied, there were NO overs in which four or more singles were scored. Consequently, a 6UP player suggesting that an early over of a ODI might go 110111 will be going against cricket history and a basic understanding of how the game is played when he or she makes that selection.

As the match progresses

Many things need to be considered, including the weather and pitch conditions — is this a high-scoring match? — and who is batting and bowling at the time. In the second innings, what RPO does the team need to win? Is the fielding team on the attack or defensive? Are the batsmen in form? Are the bowlers on top? Does the batsman need to launch a counter attack. The mindsets of the players, and how they have responded to pressure situations in the past, may need to be considered.

In a match at the 2007 World Twenty20 in South Africa, India were scoring at around 10 runs an over when England’s Andrew Flintoff became involved in a slanging match with India’s Yuvraj Singh after the batsman miscued a hook shot. Clearly angered, Yuvraj responded by hitting Stuart Broad for six sixes in the very next over — the first time anyone had done so against a Test-playing nation!

No one could have predicted this … or could they? A red-blooded Indian fan might well have thought, Yuvraj is a great player … He’s in form … He is a big six hitter … India wants quick runs … He’s angry …

In making their 6UP plays, these Indian fans might have made history themselves!

As well, 6UP players need to consider field placements — do they encourage strokeplay or hinder it? — and perhaps how players have performed in past head-to-head battles.

Who can forget the way the great Australian bowlers, Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath, used to regularly identified ‘bunnies’ in opposing teams. They would target these players in the media and then on the pitch, often dismissing them cheaply and in the process unsettling the opposing dressing room. For example, Warne used to enjoy targeting Daryll Cullinan of South Africa, to the extent that he dismissed Cullinan four times in seven Tests and eight times in 28 ODIs.

If Warne was bowling to Cullinan … the chances were the RPO would decline.

A study of scoring patterns in the 2008 IPL indicated that the RPO in the second innings of matches fluctuated significantly during the 13th to 15th overs. Our analysis showed that the runs scored in one over were likely to be very different to the runs scored in the next. At first glance, this seems illogical — why would a team going along nicely suddenly change pace at this stage of the game? But it could be explained, for example, by bowling changes implemented in these overs — do captains have their best bowler and worst bowler operating at this time? Did these large fluctuations in the RPO at this time of the innings come about because teams that are chasing say 10 runs an over and have a ‘big’ over — do they then deliberately or subconsciously hold back during the next over; and then they put the foot to the floor again after that ‘slow’ over?

The 6UP players who can successfully identify these trends and then apply their knowledge to the next game, or even the next over, must have an advantage over other players who are not so well informed.

Sometimes, it can pay to listen to the commentators. After all, they are always musing about the psychology of the players and which way the next over is likely to go. They also tend to commentate according to the momentum of a game. Here’s a quick excerpt from a T/20 match that would have informed a 6UP play ...

In the 2008 ICL final between the Lahore Badshahs and the Hyderabad Heroes, Lahore’s Imran Nazir had just made a super-fast 50 (from 16 balls, with four fours and five sixes). Many times after reaching a personal milestone, players tend to ease off, if only for a few balls. In this case, the Badshahs, chasing 159 for the win, were 0–62 in the fifth over, so there was every reason to take the foot at least slightly off the accelerator. But the mood of the moment suggested otherwise — and so did commentator Tony Greig. Responding to a question about what might happen next, Greig said: ‘He’s not made that way, this fellow, he’ll keep the big hitting up.’ In the very next over, as soon as he got back on strike, Nazir went 6046. He finished 111 not out from 44 balls, hitting the last five deliveries he faced for 64646. Lahore won in the 14th over.

The required run-rate

Often, because the team batting second knows what score is required to win, the way the two innings in a match evolve can be very different. The impact of the required run-rate on the team chasing a total should never be underestimated. This equation — along with any changes to the batting conditions and bowler’s form — will help a 6UP player predict how the first five to 10 overs of the second innings of a ODI or T/20 game will play out.

Higher run chases result in two things — boundaries and wickets. If the batting team is chasing 350 (an RPO of 7) in an ODI game, chances are they will be looking to start quickly. A skilled 6UP player can expect the opening pair to take some risks as they try to pile on the runs from the start, so his or her 6UP play will include a few boundaries, but also possibly a wicket.

In contrast, in a low-scoring game where the conditions have become overcast for a second innings that will take place at night, the ball may be dewy and it could swing around a little more. In this case, the batsmen are more likely to feel their way around rather than throw the bat. 6UP players could reasonably predict a maiden or perhaps even wicket maiden.

As an innings unfolds, patterns develop. As a game evolves, there is a substantial amount of information available that you can draw on to make a 6UP play. A 6UP participant is always advantaged by being able to make informed assessments and play ‘in the moment’.

In fact, our studies have shown that you can eventually shorten your likelihood of winning 6UP from 1 in 248,000 to a 100 per cent chance simply by using your knowledge of the game and applying that skill to your 6UP play.

Background

While designing the 6UP game, we analyzed more than 20,000 overs bowled in ODI and T/20 cricket matches played between 1996 and 2008. The purpose of the analysis was to understand how much skill could be applied to the 6UP game, what patterns exist that give players an insight into how the game/over is likely to play out. The analysis shows distinctive patterns in ODI Cricket & T/20 Cricket. The following is a small sample of juicy statistics from both the ODI and T/20 format.

Stats & Facts

Quick RPO Facts
The Runs Per Over (RPO) for a T/20 match follows a predictable pattern throughout a match – even though the game is only new. So there remains room for innovation in an already innovative format! Here’s some insight:

THE RPO in the early overs 3 to 5:
Teams score at around 9 an over – taking full advantage of fielding restrictions

THE RPO in the overs 6 to 10:
Typically drops from 9 an over to 6 as the field spreads -

The RPO in overs 5-11 of a 2nd Innings:
You can almost bank on the current over being similar to the last.

THE RPO between overs 13th to 15th of either innings:
They fluctuate wildly as betting teams start to feel the pressure of the adding to the total

The RPO in the last 2 Overs of either innings:
Irrespective of how many wickets are on hand, the RPO rises to only 12 per over

Quick Scoring Facts
Runs and scoring shots are accumulated according to patterns throughout an innings. See these key stats about the most likely scoring shots for a batting side – and when they are likely to come.

Singles:
In a first innings 1’s are more common after over 8 than in the early overs. In fact singles comprise about 50% of scoring shots before over 7, and about 70% of the scoring shots after.

In the second innings, singles follow the same pattern as the first, but are more common earlier and less common after the 13th over.

But in t/20 cricket, a team can’t live off singles alone.

4’s:
Less common from overs 6 to 14 – in the heart of an innings
They become common in the early overs and from overs 16 to 20 as the chase for runs in on.

Boundaries are what the format is all about. The pressure to give the crowd what they’re there to see and add chunks to the scorecard

3’s
A rarity in modern cricket. Smaller ground sizes and improvements in fielding skill (slide and flick back to a standing player) have virtually eliminated this score.  There were less than 50 3’s in all of last year’s IPL.

2’s
Should be the bread and butter of t/20 cricket – where the most scoring damage can (potentially) be done. However the batting skill and patience required to accumulate 2’s seems too much.

Get these incredible statistic:
In last year’s IPL there were only 3 overs (of 2100) where all balls were 2 or more. Of these 3 overs, 2 were all boundaries.

In all 20,000 overs of ODI and T/20 Cricket, only 5 overs have ever been bowled where 2 or more runs have been scored off each ball without a wicket falling.

 Wickets:
The frequency of wickets also increases as the game unfolds.

Early on there is about a 25 per cent chance of a wicket falling in a given over, this rises gradually to 50 per cent in the 16th over and jumps to 70 per cent in the final over.

The big question in T/20 cricket is – is taking a wicket (necessarily) the best thing for a bowling side? Depending on who’s to come in next, the bowling side may be better served ‘holding’ a position.

0’s:
The best outcome and the aim for a fielding side.

In the 2nd Innings - As each over passes, 0’s become less frequent from going from 1.9 dot balls for each scoring shot down to 0.5 dot balls for every scoring shot.

Common Over Combinations

Maidens - 000000
More than 40% of first innings maidens occur in the first 5 overs, and they are even more common in the early overs of the second innings: more than 50% of second innings maidens occurred in the first 5 overs. But no team had more than 2 maidens.  Teams with maidens lost twice as many matches as they won.

0 & 1 Combinations
The 64 possible combinations made up of only 0’s and 1’s together account for 21% of all overs.   From the beginning of the match, the 0,1 combinations are pretty consistent – but from over 16 these combos become less frequent as the batting becomes more aggressive.

0 & 4’s or 6’s
The 729 possible combinations that are made up of only 0’s and boundaries together account for 5% of all overs.   More than 50% of these 0,4,6 combinations occur in the first five overs. 

1’s & 4’s
Overs of only 1’s and 4’s make up 2.6% of all overs, but the best time to play these type of combos is in overs 8-13 when more than 50% of 1,4 combo’s occur.  Amazingly, these combos did not occur at all during overs 1-3 in last year’s IPL.

Other Facts

Fact 1 - In day night games there is a major advantage to batting first. Of the 55 T/20 games between test ranked nations (to early 2009), 19 games have gone to the team batting first in day night games and only 10 games to the team chasing.

Fact 2 - In daytime games the opposite is occurring.  Teams batting second have won 17 matches and lost only 6.

Fact 3 - In T/20 games the average first innings score is 163 with 7.4 wickets lost.

Fact 4 - – On average teams score off only 63% of balls in a match. So in a game where the aim is to score off every ball, there’s room for improvement.

Fact 5 - The average score per ball is 1.2. How long until this become the key measure of a T/20 match and batsmen. And how high can this figure get?

Fact 6 - overall, the frequencies per ball are:
0 = 38%, 1 = 38%, 2 = 6%, 3 = 0.3%, 4 = 13%, 5 = 0.3%, 6 = 5% but these change dramatically over to over and based on the state of the pitch, bowler, batsman, game and many other factors.